Week 8 2016

Jaguars at Titans -3.0 43.5
FART Projection: Jaguars 20.2 Titans 25.8
FART says Titans and the Over.
Redskins at Bengals -3.0 49
FART Projection: Redskins 27.8 Bengals 25.9
FART says Redskins and the Over.
Packers at Falcons -3.0 52.5
FART Projection: Packers 24.4 Falcons 28.5
FART says Falcons and the Over.
Patriots at Bills 6.5 47.5
FART Projection: Patriots 20.8 Bills 23.1
FART says Bills and the Under.
Jets at Browns 2.0 43.5
FART Projection: Jets 17.4 Browns 21.6
FART says Browns and the Under.
Chiefs at Colts 3.0 50.0
FART Projection: Chiefs 25.5 Colts 27.1
FART says Colts and the Over.
Lions at Texans -1.5 46.5
FART Projection: Lions 24.2 Texans 24.2
FART says Lions and the Over.
Seahawks at Saints 2.0 48.0
FART Projection: Seahawks 23.7 Saints 22.1
FART says Saints and the Under.
Raiders at Buccaneers 1.0 49.0
FART Projection: Raiders 25.7 Buccaneers 22.9
FART says Raiders and the Under.
Cardinals at Panthers -2.5 45.5
FART Projection: Cardinals 23.0 Panthers 17.1
FART says Cardinals and the Under.
Chargers at Broncos -3.0 43.5
FART Projection: Chargers 20.3 Broncos 25.7
FART says Broncos and the Over.
Eagles at Cowboys -5.5 43.5
FART Projection: Eagles 20.7 Cowboys 24.8
FART says Eagles and the Over.
Vikings at Bears 4.5 40.5
FART Projection: Vikings 28.4 Bears 14.6
FART says Vikings and the Over.
Vikings at Bears 4 40
FART Projection: Vikings 26.8 Bears 20.2
FART says Vikings and the Over.

Week 7 2016

Bears at Packers -7.5 46.0
FART Projection: Bears 20.3 Packers 22.9
FART says Bears and the Under.
Giants at Rams 3.0 44.5
FART Projection: Giants 14.4 Rams 22.0
FART says Rams and the Under.
Browns at Bengals -11.0 46.0
FART Projection: Browns 20.1 Bengals 26.3
FART says Browns and the Over.
Redskins at Lions 0.0 50.0
FART Projection: Redskins 24.7 Lions 29.2
FART says Lions and the Over.
Raiders at Jaguars -2.0 47.0
FART Projection: Raiders 25.4 Jaguars 25.0
FART says Raiders and the Over.
Saints at Chiefs -7.0 51.0
FART Projection: Saints 18.0 Chiefs 27.4
FART says Chiefs and the Under.
Bills at Dolphins 2.5 45.0
FART Projection: Bills 21.1 Dolphins 18.3
FART says Bills and the Under.
Ravens at Jets -2.0 40.5
FART Projection: Ravens 25.1 Jets 19.9
FART says Ravens and the Over.
Colts at Titans -3.0 48.0
FART Projection: Colts 24.4 Titans 23.5
FART says Colts and the Under.
Vikings at Eagles 3.0 39.0
FART Projection: Vikings 21.0 Eagles 18.2
FART says Eagles and the Over.
Chargers at Falcons -5.5 53.0
FART Projection: Chargers 24.8 Falcons 30.8
FART says Falcons and the Over.
Buccaneers at 49ers -1.0 45.0
FART Projection: Buccaneers 18.0 49ers 24.3
FART says 49ers and the Under.
Patriots at Steelers 7.5 49.0
FART Projection: Patriots 21.3 Steelers 24.4
FART says Steelers and the Under.
Seahawks at Cardinals -1.0 43.5
FART Projection: Seahawks 19.5 Cardinals 23.7
FART says Cardinals and the Under.
Texans at Broncos -8.0 40.0
FART Projection: Texans 17.5 Broncos 23.8
FART says Texans and the Over.

Week 6 2016

Broncos at Chargers 3 44.5
FART Projection: Broncos 23.7 Chargers 24.3
FART says Chargers and the Over.
49ers at Bills -8.0 44.5
FART Projection: 49ers 11.3 Bills 26.8
FART says Bills and the Under.
Jaguars at Bears -2.0 45.5
FART Projection: Jaguars 22.4 Bears 24.1
FART says Jaguars and the Over.
Rams at Lions -3.0 44.0
FART Projection: Rams 21.3 Lions 21.3
FART says Rams and the Under.
Steelers at Dolphins 7.0 49.0
FART Projection: Steelers 22.9 Dolphins 16.8
FART says Dolphins and the Under.
Panthers at Saints 3.0 53.5
FART Projection: Panthers 25.9 Saints 25.4
FART says Saints and the Under.
Bengals at Patriots -7.5 47.0
FART Projection: Bengals 22.2 Patriots 23.7
FART says Bengals and the Under.
Ravens at Giants -3.5 44.0
FART Projection: Ravens 22.4 Giants 22.2
FART says Ravens and the Over.
Browns at Titans -7.5 43.0
FART Projection: Browns 18.3 Titans 24.8
FART says Browns and the Over.
Eagles at Redskins 3.0 45.0
FART Projection: Eagles 22.8 Redskins 21.2
FART says Redskins and the Under.
Chiefs at Raiders 1.5 45.5
FART Projection: Chiefs 16.7 Raiders 27.3
FART says Raiders and the Under.
Cowboys at Packers -4.5 47.5
FART Projection: Cowboys 22.2 Packers 24.3
FART says Cowboys and the Under.
Falcons at Seahawks -7.0 45.5
FART Projection: Falcons 23.0 Seahawks 21.3
FART says Falcons and the Under.
Colts at Texans -3.0 47.5
FART Projection: Colts 23.2 Texans 22.4
FART says Colts and the Under.
Jets at Cardinals -7.5 45.5
FART Projection: Jets 11.9 Cardinals 32.8
FART says Cardinals and the Under.

Week 5 2016

Cardinals at 49ers 3.5 43.0
FART Projection: Cardinals 22.2 49ers 21.2
FART says 49ers and the Over.
Patriots at Browns 10.5 47.5
FART Projection: Patriots 25.2 Browns 22.0
FART says Browns and the Under.
Bears at Colts -4.5 47.5
FART Projection: Bears 21.5 Colts 26.8
FART says Colts and the Over.
Eagles at Lions 3.5 46.0
FART Projection: Eagles 29.4 Lions 25.5
FART says Eagles and the Over.
Titans at Dolphins -3.0 44.0
FART Projection: Titans 20.5 Dolphins 21.7
FART says Titans and the Under.
Texans at Vikings -6.5 38.5
FART Projection: Texans 17.5 Vikings 21.5
FART says Texans and the Over.
Jets at Steelers -9.0 50.0
FART Projection: Jets 18.1 Steelers 24.3
FART says Jets and the Under.
Redskins at Ravens -3.5 44.5
FART Projection: Redskins 20.4 Ravens 25.9
FART says Ravens and the Over.
Falcons at Broncos -4.0 44.5
FART Projection: Falcons 17.0 Broncos 26.7
FART says Broncos and the Under.
Bengals at Cowboys 1.5 46.0
FART Projection: Bengals 23.5 Cowboys 25.3
FART says Cowboys and the Over.
Chargers at Raiders -3.0 50.5
FART Projection: Chargers 23.2 Raiders 26.2
FART says and the Under.
Bills at Rams 2.0 40.5
FART Projection: Bills 28.7 Rams 14.3
FART says Bills and the Over.
Giants at Packers -7.5 49.5
FART Projection: Giants 21.4 Packers 30.1
FART says Packers and the Over.
Buccaneers at Panthers -6.0 46.0
FART Projection: Buccaneers 26.4 Panthers 27.5
FART says Buccaneers and the Over.

Week 4 2016

Dolphins at Bengals -7.0 46.5
FART Projection: Dolphins 23.2 Bengals 16.0
FART says Dolphins and the Under.
Colts at Jaguars 1.0 48.5
FART Projection: Colts 31.0 Jaguars 21.6
FART says Colts and the Over.
Panthers at Falcons 3.0 49.0
FART Projection: Panthers 24.7 Falcons 27.3
FART says Falcons and the Over.
Lions at Bears 3.0 49.0
FART Projection: Lions 26.8 Bears 26.5
FART says Bears and the Over.
Titans at Texans -4.0 40.5
FART Projection: Titans 16.6 Texans 24.0
FART says Texans and the Over.
Bills at Patriots -3.5 41.0
FART Projection: Bills 19.3 Patriots 24.9
FART says Patriots and the Over.
Seahawks at Jets 1.0 40.0
FART Projection: Seahawks 17.0 Jets 17.4
FART says Jets and the Under.
Raiders at Ravens -3.5 45.0
FART Projection: Raiders 25.8 Ravens 16.8
FART says Raiders and the Under.
Browns at Redskins -7.0 48.0
FART Projection: Browns 20.9 Redskins 27.1
FART says Browns and the Push.
Broncos at Buccaneers 3.5 43.0
FART Projection: Broncos 22.8 Buccaneers 21.1
FART says Buccaneers and the Over.
Rams at Cardinals -9.5 43.0
FART Projection: Rams 19.6 Cardinals 25.4
FART says Rams and the Over.
Saints at Chargers -4.0 54.0
FART Projection: Saints 24.7 Chargers 25.5
FART says Saints and the Under.
Cowboys at 49ers 1.5 44.5
FART Projection: Cowboys 23.3 49ers 24.1
FART says 49ers and the Over.
Chiefs at Steelers -3.5 48.0
FART Projection: Chiefs 20.0 Steelers 24.6
FART says Steelers and the Under.
Giants at Vikings -4.5 43.0
FART Projection: Giants 15.0 Vikings 21.7
FART says Vikings and the Under.

Week 3 ATS 8-7 (32-30-1 YTD) O/U 5-10 (24-36-3 YTD)
Confidence ATS 2-2 (13-8)
Confidence O/U 1-2 (5-7)
A bit of a back to normal week here. Nothing too impressive, the O/U numbers continue to struggle, but we’re still doing quite well ATS. One thing I can’t help but notice is FART’s crazy success in Sunday/Monday night games (8-1-1 ATS). Way to go FART.

Week 3 2016

Texans at Patriots PK 40
FART Projection: Texans 19.6 Patriots 21.8
FART says Patriots and the over.
Cardinals at Bills 4.5 48.0
FART Projection: Cardinals 20.9 Bills 15.9
FART says Cardinals and the under.
Vikings at Panthers -6.5 43.0
FART Projection: Vikings 15.2 Panthers 23.0
FART says Panthers and the Under.
Broncos at Bengals -3.5 42.0
FART Projection: Broncos 19.7 Bengals 19.5
FART says Broncos and the Under.
Lions at Packers -6.5 48.0
FART Projection: Lions 23.2 Packers 25.3
FART says Lions and the Over.
Ravens at Jaguars 2.0 45.0
FART Projection: Ravens 28.7 Jaguars 20.4
FART says Ravens and the Over.
Browns at Dolphins -9.5 42.0
FART Projection: Browns 15.0 Dolphins 30.1
FART says Dolphins and the Over.
Redskins at Giants -3.5 47.0
FART Projection: Redskins 14.5 Giants 22.8
FART says Giants and the Under.
Raiders at Titans 1.0 47.0
FART Projection: Raiders 25.2 Titans 25.1
FART says Titans and the Over.
49ers at Seahawks -10.0 42.0
FART Projection: 49ers 19.3 Seahawks 24.0
FART says 49ers and the Over.
Rams at Buccaneers -3.5 41.0
FART Projection: Rams 22.4 Buccaneers 22.0
FART says Rams and the Over.
Chargers at Colts -2.0 51.0
FART Projection: Chargers 27.4 Colts 24.4
FART says Chargers and the Over.
Jets at Chiefs -3.0 43.0
FART Projection: Jets 22.9 Chiefs 23.6
FART says Jets and the Over.
Steelers at Eagles 4.0 46.0
FART Projection: Steelers 21.0 Eagles 20.4
FART says Eagles and the Under.
Bears at Cowboys -6.5 44.5
FART Projection: Bears 21.0 Cowboys 31.0
FART says Cowboys and the Over.
Falcons at Saints -3.0 54.0
FART Projection: Falcons 23.2 Saints 31.0
FART says Saints and the Over.

Week 3 ATS 5-11 (24-23-1 YTD) O/U 7-8-1 (19-26-3 YTD)
Confidence ATS 1-3 (11-6)
Confidence O/U 1-2 (4-5)
Woof. Momma said there’d be weeks like this. Pretty abysmal week, but you can’t win them all I suppose. One bright spot would be the Sunday night game. The Bears Cowboys projection had one of the highest comp percentages thus far and it was stunningly accurate. That’s a good sign! Here’s hoping for better success in week 4.

Week 2 2016

Jets at Bills +1 41
FART Projection: Jets 15.8 Bills 14.0
FART says Jets and the under.
49ers at Panthers -13.5 45
FART Projection: 49ers 23.0 Panthers 27.0
FART says 49ers and the over.
Ravens at Browns +4 42
FART Projection: Ravens 20.6 Browns 16.4
FART says Ravens and the under.
Titans at Lions +6 48
FART Projection: Titans 15.7 Lions 38.8
FART says Lions and the over.
Chiefs at Texans -1.5 42
FART Projection: Chiefs 15.7 Texans 18.7
FART says Texans and the under.
Dolphins at Patriots -5.5 42
FART Projection: Dolphins 17.2 Patriots 20.1
FART says Dolphins and the under.
Saints at Giants -4 54
FART Projection: Saints 22.2 Giants 25.7
FART says Saints and the under.
Bengals at Steelers -3 48.5
FART Projection: Bengals 15.3 Steelers 19.7
FART says Steelers and the under.
Cowboys at Redskins -3 47
FART Projection: Cowboys 29.7 Redskins 18.2
FART says Cowboys and the over.
Buccaneers at Cardinals -6.5 49
FART Projection: Buccaneers 17.2 Cardinals 23.7
FART says Push and the over.
Seahawks at Rams 6.5 38
FART Projection: Seahawks 19.3 Rams 24.0
FART says Rams and the over.
Colts at Broncos -5 46.5
FART Projection: Colts 15.4 Broncos 25.0
FART says Broncos and the under.
Falcons at Raiders -5 50.5
FART Projection: Falcons 18.7 Raiders 26.6
FART says Raiders and the under.
Jaguars at Chargers -3 48
FART Projection: Jaguars 20.1 Chargers 29.6
FART says Chargers and the over.
Packers at Vikings +2 43
FART Projection: Packers 16.3 Vikings 19.2
FART says Vikings and the under.
Eagles at Bears -3 43
FART Projection: Eagles 24.9 Bears 14.4
FART says Eagles and the under.

Week 2 ATS: 10-5-1 (19-12-1 ytd) Over/Under: 7-8-1 (11-18-3 ytd)
Confidence picks ATS (projected spread differing from actual spread by five or more points): 4-2 (10-3 ytd)
Confidence picks Over/Under(O/U projection differing from actual by seven or more points): 2-2 (3-3 ytd)

Another rock solid week, FART absolutely nailed the two night games. It’s still not doing very well on totals, but if it can continue this kind of success ATS, who cares!

Week 1 2016

Panthers at Broncos +3 41
FART Projection: Panthers 15.5 Broncos 20.2
FART says Broncos and the under.
Result: win/push.
Packers at Jaguars +5.5 48
FART Projection: Packers 25.4 Jaguars 16.2
FART says Packers and the under.
Result: loss/loss
Bills at Ravens -3 44.5
FART Projection: Bills 24 Ravens 24.6
FART says Bills and the over.
Result: loss/loss
Bears at Texans -6 44
FART Projection: Bears 11 Texans 24.6
FART says Texans and the under.
Result: win/win
Browns at Eagles -3.5 41
FART Projection: Browns 21 Eagles 25.5
FART says Eagles and the over.
Result: win/loss
Buccaneers at Falcons -3 47.5
FART Projection: Buccaneers 20.8 Falcons 26
FART says Falcons and the under.
Result: loss/loss
Vikings at Titans +2.5 42
FART Projection Vikings 19.3 Titans 19
FART says Titans and the under.
loss/win
Bengals at Jets +2.5 42
FART Projection Bengals 16 Jets 24.1
FART says Jets and the under
win/loss
Raiders at Saints -1.5 51
FART Projection Raiders 21.3 Saints 30.5
FART says Saints and the over.
loss/win
Chargers at Chiefs -7 44.5
FART Projection Chargers 17 Chiefs 27.5
FART says Chiefs and push.
loss/push
Dolphins at Seahawks -10 44
FART Projection Dolphins 19 Seahawks 28.2
FART says Dolphins and over.
win/loss
Lions at Colts -3.5 51
FART Projection Lions 19.4 Colts 17.8
FART says Lions and under.
win/loss
Giants at Cowboys EVEN 46
FART Projection Giants 23.7 Cowboys 28.7
FART says Cowboys and over.
loss/loss
Patriots at Cardinals -6.5 46.5
FART Projection Patriots 26.2 Cardinals 25.8
FART says Patriots and over.
win/loss
Steelers at DC +3 50
FART Projection Steelers 27.4 DC 20.3
FART says Steelers and under
win/loss
Rams at 49ers +2.5 43
FART Projection Rams 18 49ers 22.1
FART says 49ers and under.
win/win

Week 1 ATS: 9-7 Over/Under: 4-10-2
Confidence picks ATS (projected spread differing from actual spread by five or more points): 6-1
Confidence picks Over/Under(O/U projection differing from actual by seven or more points): 1-1

The system obviously struggled on totals but did really well ATS, particularly in confidence games. I was not expecting good results in week 1 because there just isn’t any data available yet, but this is encouraging. Stay tuned for week 2 and assuredly some regression to the mean.

Football Analytics Research Technology!

Hi friends! I’ve put together a goofy little Rails application that projects NFL football games. It does this by essentially comparing any given game with a big ol’ database of previous games, using a myriad of different weighted factors. It was designed specifically to project on a game by game basis, but I’ve run some seasons long simulations for kicks and here are the results:

AFC East

Patriots: 10.8 – 5.1 – 0.1
Bills: 10.2 – 5.5 – 0.2
Jets: 3.4 – 12.5 – 0.1
Dolphins: 3.0 – 12.9 – 0.1

AFC North

Steelers: 10.9 – 5.1 – 0.0
Ravens: 10.0 – 5.9 – 0.1
Bengals: 9.6 – 6.3 – 0.1
Browns: 5.2 – 10.7 – 0.1

AFC South

Colts: 11.1 – 4.8 – 0.1
Texans: 6.4 – 9.4 – 0.1
Jaguars: 6.1 – 9.8 – 0.1
Titans: 3.1 – 12.8 – 0.0

AFC West

Chiefs: 11.2 – 4.7 – 0.1
Broncos: 10.7 – 5.1 – 0.1
Chargers: 9.5 – 6.4 – 0.1
Raiders: 2.9 – 13.0 – 0.1

NFC East

Giants: 10.4 – 5.5 – 0.1
Eagles: 9.6 – 6.3 – 0.1
Cowboys: 7.3 – 8.6 – 0.1
Redskins: 5.1 – 10.9 – 0.0

NFC North

Packers: 12.0 – 3.8 – 0.2
Lions: 9.4 – 6.4 – 0.2
Vikings: 7.9 – 7.9 – 0.2
Bears: 2.0 – 14.0 – 0.0

NFC South

Falcons: 10.8 – 5.1 – 0.1
Panthers: 10.1 – 5.8 – 0.1
Saints: 6.2 – 9.7 – 0.1
Buccaneers: 4.2 – 11.7 – 0.1

NFC West

Cardinals: 12.1 – 3.8 – 0.1
Seahawks: 10.9 – 5.1 – 0.1
49ers: 6.4 – 9.5 – 0.1
Rams: 5.5 – 10.3 – 0.2

I’ll be posting FART’s projections each week on this site, essentially keeping track of FART’s record against the spread. I won’t personally be using this system for gambling as it is illegal in this state, but I’d certainly condone others to do so as I don’t have any kind of moral horse in that race (so sorry).